COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TANKED: TIME TO GO BARGAIN SHOPPING!

Tam-Bay Commercial Realty, Tampa FL Commercial Real Estate Broker

TAMBAY Commercial can help you find the perfect investment to fit your needs and investment capabilities.

It’s no secret we’re headed into a deep recession, however this should be relatively short lived in comparison to prior recessions, with a projected “U” shape recovery.

Investors: it’s time to go shopping. Tenants are injured and not paying their full rent, if any.  This too will be short lived as the economy continues to reopen. In the meantime, landlords have mortgages and other financial obligations that can’t be met.  Landlords are looking to get out, and fast.  If the investor is patient in bringing the tenancies back to full potential, the award will pay dividends.

Tom’s Suggestions on Segmented Markets:

Multi-Tenant Investment

Stay away from single-tenant buildings. If your tenant goes under, you lost 100% of your revenue. It may take 6 months to one year to find another. If we own a 10 unit retail center, and a tenant moves out, we still have 9 others paying rent.  That’s smart!

Industrial

Industrial is the #1 commodity right now.  Warehouses are not sexy,  but money is!  Caution: I don’t suggest we buy a warehouse unless there is a long term credit tenant in place.  Multi-Tenant industrial / flex space is the way to go.  Distribution warehousing is stronger than ever due to the over-whelming online shopping. Jeff Bezos is on his way to becoming the first Trillionaire.  Furthermore, after learning our pharmaceuticals are made in China, along with everything else, America will have a resurgence in manufacturing.

Multi-Family

After years of low vacancies and low cap rates, the multi-family market is taking a hit.  This relates more to the Class “A” institutional projects.  Class “A” tenants are moving to Class “B” & “C” buildings.  Many tenants live week-to-week, and suffered job loss as a result of the pandemic. Vacancies are ticking upward while lease rates are dropping to fill empty apartments.  Class “A” buildings have been selling at 4% cap rates.  That’s a terrible return!  My suggestion is to stay back and allow the multi-family market correct itself.

Retail

With 2 months of closures, tenants cannot afford to pay landlords, and landlords have financial obligations. This may be the hardest hit of all real estate markets. We won’t know until the economy fully reopens to assess the magnitude of devastation. Which segment of retail will stay dark, and who will recover?  I’m guessing mom-and-pop establishments will experience the greatest loss, while franchises and credit tenants will rebound.

I see retail strengthening for two reasons: 1. Cannabis becoming recreational is inevitable. Like hair salons, we will see cannabis in almost every shopping center. 2. Medical – doctors, dentists and chiropractors are leaving their offices and filling vacant retail space. They have become marketing engines and want passerby traffic and signage.

Tom’s suggestion: Although Retail is getting its ass kicked, it’s a good time to buy multi-tenant retail centers.  Same with multi-tenant industrial, if the investor can wait out the storm and restock the tenant base, it too will pay dividends. We can turn a 9% cap rate into a 7% cap rate (the higher the cap rate, the lower the value / the lower the cap rate, the higher the value).

Office

Unless you need a place to conduct business, stay far away from office.  In fact, if you need a place to conduct business, rent!

Call center tenants are looking around their 15,000 square foot empty space (because they sent everyone home), and figured out they don’t need the space. Years ago, IBM, Aetna Insurance, and Hewlett Packard sent everyone home to work, and emptied out the big buildings. Before the pandemic, office vacancy rates were 10% or greater.  I predict a major fallout in Office.

Land

Unless you need a place to park some money, don’t invest in land, especially now.  Developers are putting their pens down and waling away from deals. I’m not a fan of investing in non-income producing property.  Your return on your investment will be “$0” for several years.

Call us at 813.439.2913 to explore your options!

TAMBAY Commercial is a Florida Licensed Real Estate Brokerage

Tom Brubaker