If you own industrial property in Tampa Bay, or you have a lease coming up, you have probably read that the market is softening. You have possibly also read that it is holding firm. Both articles were accurate. They were measuring different things.
Tom Brubaker has spent 35 years pricing Tampa Bay commercial property, and the question he gets most often right now is some version of the same one. Is this a good time to sell, or should I wait. The honest answer depends on what you own and where it sits, because the metro average is hiding an enormous spread.
The vacancy number depends on who you ask
Published vacancy figures for Tampa Bay industrial in the first half of 2026 range from about 7.3 percent to 9.1 percent. CBRE put Q1 2026 vacancy at 7.5 percent with availability approaching 10 percent. Cushman & Wakefield reported 7.4 percent in Q2, flat quarter over quarter and up 30 basis points year over year. Savills reported a climb from 8.2 to 9.1 percent and called it the tenth consecutive quarter of increases.
The spread comes from different inventory definitions and different submarket boundaries. What matters for your decision is that every source agrees on direction, and every source agrees the increase is being driven by new construction rather than by tenants leaving.
Supply is the story, not demand
Tampa recorded 379,000 square feet of positive absorption in Q1 2026 against 322,000 square feet of new deliveries, with 2.6 million square feet still under construction. Demand is present. It is arriving slower than the buildings are.
That distinction matters because the two situations resolve very differently. A market losing tenants stays soft. A market absorbing a construction wave tightens again once the pipeline empties, and Tampa’s under construction pipeline has already declined 18.9 percent year over year to 4.8 million square feet, the lowest quarterly level since late 2021, with projects only 29.3 percent preleased.
Size is doing more than location
This is the split most owners miss. Infill submarkets and buildings under 100,000 square feet remain the most constrained, while larger format space and projects in outlying areas account for the majority of available inventory.
If you own a 12,000 square foot building inside the urban core, the softening headlines describe a market you are not in. If you own or are marketing big box space in an outlying submarket, you are competing against speculative product that has not leased yet and you should price accordingly. A single metro vacancy figure averages those two realities into a number that describes neither one. That gap is exactly what a broker opinion of value Tampa Bay is built to resolve, since it prices your specific building rather than the market it happens to sit in.
Rent quotes are not comparable across reports
You will see Tampa Bay industrial rents quoted at $9.14, $9.63, and $12.69 per square foot in reports covering the same market. Newmark reported a record $9.14 per square foot, up 5.1 percent year over year. Avison Young reported $9.63 NNN, essentially flat. CoStar data reported $12.69 with 3.4 percent annual growth.
Those figures differ mainly by lease structure and by which buildings each source includes. Before you benchmark your own asking rate or evaluate a renewal offer against a published number, confirm whether it is quoted NNN, modified gross, or full service. Comparing a NNN rate to a gross rate will mislead you by several dollars a foot.
Leasing and sales activity picked up in the second quarter
Avison Young reported Tampa industrial leasing surpassing 2.9 million square feet in Q2 2026, with sales volume topping $210 million, nearly double the prior quarter. Cushman & Wakefield noted that the Lakeland submarket accounted for the majority of leasing volume, with close to 603,000 square feet signed.
Transaction volume nearly doubling in a quarter tells you capital is moving again. For an owner who paused a sale in 2025 because bids were thin, the buyer pool looks meaningfully different now than it did twelve months ago.
The demand drivers underneath are still building
Port Tampa Bay is in the middle of a physical expansion. The port handled 32 million tons of cargo in fiscal year 2025 and moved close to 263,000 TEUs, with container volumes up more than 300 percent since 2018 and six post-Panamax cranes expected to be operational by the end of 2026. You can follow the port’s own reporting at Port Tampa Bay.
Crane capacity and channel work are ten year commitments, and they anchor distribution demand along the I-4 corridor well past the current supply cycle. That is the backdrop against which a hold or sell decision should be measured, rather than a single quarter of vacancy movement.
What to do with this
If you are selling. Get a current opinion of value before you set a price, and make sure it reflects your building size class and submarket rather than the metro average. Sellers pricing off a headline vacancy number are leaving money on the table in the small bay segment and overpricing in big box.
If your lease is expiring. Your negotiating position depends almost entirely on your square footage. Above 100,000 feet in an outlying submarket, concessions are available. Under 20,000 feet in an infill location, expect to compete.
If you are buying. The window where speculative product is delivering into a thinner pipeline is the part of the cycle where negotiating leverage exists. It closes as absorption catches up.
Tom Brubaker works all four sides of these transactions, buyers, sellers, landlords, and tenants, and he no longer performs formal appraisals while still applying the same certified appraisal methodology to pricing strategy. If you want a straight read on where your specific property sits in this market, warehouse sales in Tampa Bay and industrial real estate Tampa Bay cover how he approaches it. Call (813) 493-2913 and you will reach him, not an assistant.
*Frequently asked questions
Is Tampa Bay industrial vacancy rising because tenants are leaving?
No. Absorption remains positive, meaning more space is being occupied than vacated. Vacancy is rising because new construction is delivering faster than tenants can fill it, which is a supply condition rather than a demand condition.
Why do different reports show different Tampa Bay industrial vacancy rates?
Each research firm defines its inventory and submarket boundaries differently, so the same market produces readings from roughly 7.3 to 9.1 percent depending on the source. The direction is consistent across all of them even though the level is not.
Should I sell my Tampa Bay industrial property now or wait?
It depends on building size and submarket. Small bay and infill product is still tight and prices well now, while large format space in outlying submarkets is competing directly against unleased speculative deliveries.
Are Tampa Bay industrial rents actually falling?
No. Rent growth has slowed rather than reversed, with annual increases reported between 3.4 and 5.1 percent depending on the source. Landlords are holding face rates while offering more concessions on larger spaces.
What is a broker opinion of value and do I need one?
